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Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Colombia's National Liberation Army, better known as the ELN, expects dialogue with the Colombian government to restart in the coming weeks, which could ease tensions and attacks on the nation's oil and gas infrastructure. The information emerges following an interview between the organization's top negotiator and EFE.

ELN negotiator Israel Ramirez Pineda whose nom de guerre is Pablo Beltran, seemed optimistic about the restart of the negotiations that could end the guerrillas' armed conflict in Colombia. Nevertheless, he kept his reservations about the total surrendering of arms to the government due to the killings of former guerrilla soldiers after the 2016 peace treaty signed with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), according to the information shared by EFE.

Founded in 1964, the ELN is one of the nation's guerrilla forces with a strong presence near the Venezuelan border, where some of Colombia's most prolific oil assets are located. The Caño Limon field and the 770-kilometer (480-mile) long Caño Limon -- Coveñas pipeline, both located near ELN-controlled areas, are victims of constant attacks by criminal groups such as the ELN.

In 2021, Colombia produced some 736,000 barrels of oil per day (BBL/d), with the Caño Limon oil field contributing almost 20,000 BBL/d during the same period, making it one of the largest producing fields in the country. In the past, attacks on pipelines such as Caño Limon - Coveñas has halted the pumping through the pipeline but not impacted production at the Caño Limon oil field.

Meanwhile, the Caño Limon -- Coveñas oil pipeline is a critical asset for the South American country, given that it transports crude oil from the wells near the Venezuelan border to the export terminal of Coveñas, one of Colombia's largest export hubs.

Yet these infrastructures have been the target of armed groups such as the ELN over the years, leading to operational disruptions. For example, according to the Colombian armed forces and RCN radio, in 2021, the Caño Limon-Coveñas pipeline was attacked seven times in the Norte de Santander province by groups in the area. Only in July, an Ecopetrol helicopter delivering supplies to fix the pipeline was attacked in Tibu, Norte de Santander.

Moreover, the remote location of the pipeline also makes it vulnerable to constant crude syphoning incidents. Illegal groups in the area refine the crude to produce fuels for illicit business in the Colombian forest.

However, the possibility of dialogue between the ELN and the newly elected government of Gustavo Petro opens an opportunity to settle the conflict and protect energy assets. Negotiations between the guerrilla group and the government ended four years ago. However, President Petro, a former member of the M-19 urban guerrillas himself, could offer the good faith needed for the restart of dialogue.

Petro's experience with peace treaties following the M-19 guerrilla deal in the 1990s and his backing of the 2016 agreement with the FARC make him a connoisseur of guerrilla groups' demilitarization processes, opening the possibility for better negotiations.

Petro's government had already manifested in August its willingness to return to the negotiation table with the ELN to bring peace to Colombia. A ceasefire and the end of hostility could be amongst the first steps the ELN and the government could agree on, yet it seems unlikely that the ELN will surrender its weapons like the FARC did in 2016. Additionally, just like it occurred with FARC, dissident groups of the ELN could emerge even if a peace agreement is achieved.

The killing of former FARC guerrilla fighters after the signing of the peace treaty in 2016 and the lack of accountability are points that the ELN will consider before handing off its weapons in any negotiation.

Guaranteeing its fighters' security after a peace treaty's closing will likely be among the top demands the ELN sets in any negotiation process.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).

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